On poker: Balancing gut feeling with math of pot odds
The most critical math in poker is pot odds, which calculates the cost of the call you're facing versus the amount in the pot, then comparing that to your chances of hitting your card.
Some players use pot odds as their last word. But others, such as championship pro Josh Arieh, balance them with their read on an opponent and their situation in a tournament.
"I'm not a math person," said Arieh, winner of two World Series of Poker bracelets. "Some math guys might fold certain situations, but in tournaments, if it's close, I'd rather take the risk."
Sometimes gut players are thankful for the right math when they have the wrong read, as Arieh experienced in this hand from the World Poker Tour's $15,000-buy-in Doyle Brunson Five Diamond World Poker Classic at Las Vegas' Bellagio in 2009.
With blinds at $400-$800 plus a $75 ante, the player under the gun opened for $2,000. Arieh called on the button with A-J of hearts. The big blind also called.
The flop came 9-Q-9, two hearts, giving Arieh the nut-flush draw on a potential full-house board. The big blind checked. The original raiser made it $2,400. Arieh called. The big blind check-raised to $13,000. The original raiser folded.
"Now I'm thinking for as long as I'll ever think," said Arieh, a pro from the Full Tilt Poker online site. "I even called the clock on myself because I was sick of thinking about it. I'm trying to think if my pot odds make it right. I think he has a 9 or the king-10 of hearts. More likely, he has a 9."
If his read was correct, Arieh had nine flush outs among the 47 unseen cards with the turn and river to come. A handy way to figure odds with two cards to come is multiply your outs by four; with one card to come, multiply by two. It's not exact, but it's close enough.
So, Arieh was about 36 percent to hit a heart, making him less than a 2-1 underdog. He had to call $8,800 into a pot of more than $21,000, better than 2-1 odds.
"When I called his raise on the flop, he had $19,000 behind, so I'm basically committing myself to play for his whole stack unless the board double-pairs, because I think he has a 9," Arieh said. "Even losing the rest of the $19,000, I'd still have $50,000 to play with."
The turn came the 7 of spades. The big blind moved all in.
"His little hesitation made me think it wasn't a 9 anymore, but it really didn't matter," Arieh said. "I'm calling him."
The big blind showed Q-10 offsuit.
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"Even losing the rest of the $19000, I'd still have $50000 to play with." The turn came the 7 of spades. The big blind moved all in. "His little hesitation made me think it wasn't a 9 anymore, but it really didn't matter," Arieh said. "I'm calling him.
"Like any young player coming in they're going to take time to evolve and grow into their body and build the physical requirements that are needed, but some of the game nuances that you need to understand he's got in absolute spades.
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